Bear Case
$194.88
43% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
AAPL
Apple Inc9/27/2026, 12:45:14 PM
Price
+5.15 (1.53%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$242.75 - $345.34
Price · YTD
$341.07+26.2%
● Ex-div
Valuation
Market cap
$5.0T
EV
$5.0T
5Y CAGR
8.7%
D/E
0.78x
P/E
39x
P/TB
57x
P/FCF
41x
EV/FCF
41x
P/S
11x
Rule of 40
49%
Div yield
0.3%
Employees
166,000
Profit / employee
$776,687
FCF-SBC yield
2%
ROIC
99.6%
RSI
66.5
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q3'26
vs Q3'25 last year
Revenue
$109B
QoQ
-1.6%
YoY vs Q3'25
+16.4%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +47%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $466,823MGross profit: $227,123MOp. income: $154,859MNet income: $128,930M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $154,859MOp. CF: $146,724MFCF-SBC: $122,977MCapex: $10,041M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +49%Operating: +33%Net: +28%FCF-SBC: +26%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $154,859MNet debt: $21,945MTangible book: $87,178M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 182,795 | - | +39% | 52,503 | +29% | 39,510 | 59,713 | 9,813 | 2,863 | 47,037 | +26% | 8% | 594,045 | 604,263 | 0.2 | 10,218 | 24,342 | 102,789 | 12x |
| 2015 | 233,715 | +28% | +40% | 71,230 | +30% | 53,394 | 81,266 | 11,488 | 3,586 | 66,192 | +28% | 12% | 544,672 | 567,399 | 0.3 | 22,727 | 23,014 | 110,346 | 7.97x |
| 2016 | 215,639 | -8% | +39% | 60,024 | +28% | 45,687 | 66,231 | 12,734 | 4,210 | 49,287 | +23% | 8% | 582,559 | 602,436 | 0.3 | 19,877 | 21,883 | 119,629 | 10x |
| 2017 | 229,234 | +6% | +38% | 61,344 | +27% | 48,351 | 64,225 | 12,451 | 4,840 | 46,934 | +20% | 6% | 824,866 | 866,365 | 0.7 | 41,499 | 20,869 | 134,047 | 14x |
| 2018 | 265,595 | +16% | +38% | 70,898 | +27% | 59,531 | 77,434 | 13,313 | 5,340 | 58,781 | +22% | 8% | 741,225 | 789,407 | 0.7 | 48,182 | 19,822 | 107,147 | 11x |
| 2019 | 260,174 | -2% | +38% | 63,930 | +25% | 55,256 | 69,391 | 10,495 | 6,068 | 52,828 | +20% | 4% | 1,305,259 | 1,312,749 | 0.1 | 7,490 | 18,471 | 90,488 | 21x |
| 2020 | 274,515 | +6% | +38% | 66,288 | +24% | 57,411 | 80,674 | 7,309 | 6,829 | 66,536 | +24% | 3% | 2,235,421 | 2,256,914 | 0.3 | 21,493 | 17,352 | 65,339 | 34x |
| 2021 | 365,817 | +33% | +42% | 108,949 | +30% | 94,680 | 104,038 | 11,085 | 7,906 | 85,047 | +23% | 3% | 2,897,050 | 2,959,130 | 0.6 | 62,080 | 16,701 | 63,090 | 27x |
| 2022 | 394,328 | +8% | +43% | 119,437 | +30% | 99,803 | 122,151 | 10,708 | 9,038 | 102,405 | +26% | 5% | 2,070,153 | 2,141,918 | 0.6 | 71,765 | 16,216 | 50,672 | 18x |
| 2023 | 383,285 | -3% | +44% | 114,301 | +30% | 96,995 | 110,543 | 10,959 | 10,833 | 88,751 | +23% | 3% | 2,994,879 | 3,044,412 | 0.4 | 49,533 | 15,744 | 62,146 | 27x |
| 2024 | 391,035 | +2% | +46% | 123,216 | +32% | 93,736 | 118,254 | 9,447 | 11,688 | 97,119 | +25% | 3% | 3,814,891 | 3,856,349 | 0.3 | 41,458 | 15,344 | 56,950 | 31x |
| 2025 | 416,161 | +6% | +47% | 133,050 | +32% | 112,010 | 111,482 | 12,715 | 12,863 | 85,904 | +21% | 2% | 4,052,764 | 4,096,724 | 0.3 | 43,960 | 14,949 | 62,640 | 31x |
| Q3'26 | 109,417 | +16% | +50% | 35,695 | +33% | 29,789 | 34,369 | 2,455 | 3,401 | 28,513 | +26% | 2% | 5,009,417 | 5,031,362 | 0.2 | 21,945 | 14,715 | 87,178 | 35x |
| TTM | 466,823 | +14% | +49% | 154,859 | +33% | 128,930 | 146,724 | 10,041 | 13,706 | 122,977 | +26% | 2% | 5,009,417 | 5,031,362 | 0.1 | 87,178 | 32x | ||
| CAGR | +6.6% | - | - | - | 29% | - | - | - | - | - | 23% | - | - | - | 0.4 | - | -4.0% | - | 25x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
Apple Inc
$AAPLCurrent Price $341.07
Base Case
$314.41
8% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$477.23
40% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
-2%33%
Base
+8%34%
Bull
+18%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $341.07 · stretch
+9.2%
Bear case
DCF$194.9
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- -2.3%
- 5Y IRR total return
- -11.1%Bagholder
- Implied 5Y Price
- $303.10
- Upside vs price
- -42.9%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$314.4
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +8.1%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +47.9%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $504.30
- Upside vs price
- -7.8%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$477.2
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +18.0%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +128.6%2 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $779.53
- Upside vs price
- +39.9%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$328.7
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +9.2%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +54.9%2 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $528.42
- Upside vs price
- -3.6%
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