Blended IRR vs entry price
IRR on probability-weighted cash flows at each buy price
At $25
+18.0%
BlendedBearBaseBullCurrent EOD priceBlended fair value
$25
Bear IRR: -3.1%Base IRR: +18.6%Bull IRR: +26.4%Blended IRR: +18.0%
Bear case
DCF$21.3
Implied fair value (EOD basis)
- True IRR
- -3.1%
- 5Y IRR total return
- -14.5%Bagholder
- Upside vs price
- -14.5%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$33.1
Implied fair value (EOD basis)
- True IRR
- +18.6%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +135.1%2 bagger
- Upside vs price
- +32.8%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$43.0
Implied fair value (EOD basis)
- True IRR
- +26.4%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +223.2%3 bagger
- Upside vs price
- +72.6%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$32.5
Blended fair value (EOD basis)
- True IRR
- +18.0%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +129.0%2 bagger
- Upside vs price
- +30.4%