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Legal & methodology
Read this before you use the discounted cash flow (DCF) calculator on PlusEVbagholder LLC. The tool is meant to teach how DCF valuation works in general. It ships without promises of any kind and is not a substitute for advice from a financial, legal, tax, or accounting professional.
Outputs from this model - including implied fair value per share - are math based on assumptions you or the system supply. They are not instructions to buy, sell, or hold anything. Real decisions depend on factors this page cannot model: your goals, time horizon, liquidity needs, taxes, headline risk, management changes, competitive shifts, and market pricing at the moment you trade. Do not treat a favorable DCF result as a promise of profit or a suitable entry price.
We work to keep formulas and feeds reasonable, but we do not warrant that inputs, historical figures, or your scenario settings are complete, current, or free of error. End-of-day prices and fundamentals are sourced from Tiingo (https://www.tiingo.com); coverage and history vary by symbol and subscription tier. Garbage in, garbage out applies. Any intrinsic value the sheet prints is a what-if exercise, not a certified appraisal of what the market should pay today.
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The terminal runs three five-year DCF scenarios (bear, base, bull). Each scenario produces a cash-flow path and a terminal exit value. The metrics below describe what those numbers mean and how the blended card combines them.
We run three DCFs. Each gives a cash-flow path and a terminal exit. For one scenario, True IRR is the return that makes buying at today’s price equal to the present value of those flows; 5Y IRR total return compounds that annual rate over five years - (1 + True IRR)^5 − 1 - the total return if you buy today and sell at the end of the path. For the blended case, we do not average the three IRRs - we average the cash in each forecast year (weighted by your probabilities), build one expected path, and compute one IRR and one 5Y IRR total return on that path. Blended fair value is still a weighted average of the three fair values.
Every bear / base / bull case is a five-year forecast. For each year the model estimates revenue, operating income, and FCF minus stock-based compensation (FCF-SBC). Those company-level FCF amounts are divided by shares outstanding to get per-share cash flows. In the final forecast year, terminal enterprise value is estimated as terminal EBIT × your exit multiple; terminal equity is terminal EV minus net debt and may go negative when debt exceeds that exit value (shown in the bridge). Fair value per share is the present value of forecast FCF-SBC plus discounted terminal equity, divided by shares - floored at $0 only when that total equity value is negative. When total equity value is zero or negative, forecast FCF and terminal are treated as $0 for True IRR and 5Y IRR total return.
True IRR answers: “If I buy at today’s price and this scenario plays out, what annualized return zeros out the investment?” The model solves for the rate r where net present value equals zero on the per-share path:
−Entry + Y1 FCF/(1+r) + Y2 FCF/(1+r)² + … + Terminal/(1+r)⁵ = 0
5Y IRR total return is the compounded sale return from True IRR - the total percent gain or loss if you buy at today’s price and exit at the end of the five-year path at that annual rate:
(1 + True IRR)^5 − 1
Example: True IRR +39.8%/yr → (1.398)^5 − 1 ≈ +423%. That is a 5 bagger on the sale.
Blended fair value is a straightforward probability-weighted average of each scenario’s fair value per share. Fair value per scenario is the discounted present value of forecast FCF-SBC plus discounted terminal equity, divided by shares outstanding, using your scenario discount rate (default 10%). Per-share fair value is floored at $0 when total equity value is negative.
Blended FV = P(bear)×Bear FV + P(base)×Base FV + P(bull)×Bull FV
Example: 35% × $39 + 40% × $113 + 25% × $351 ≈ $147/sh. Averaging prices this way is valid.
IRR is not linear - you cannot average three scenario IRRs and get the expected return. Instead, blend the cash flows first, then solve once:
Example: If bear loses money at $76 but bull’s terminal is large, averaging IRRs understates or misstates the expected path. Blending dollars respects that bull contributes more cash at exit even at 25% weight.
Compound the blended True IRR from Step 5 over five years:
(1 + blended True IRR)^5 − 1
The purple blended line on “Blended IRR vs entry price” applies the same cash-flow blend at each hypothetical buy price on the x-axis. Bear, base, and bull lines show each scenario in isolation. The yellow line marks current EOD price; the violet line marks blended fair value.
Hover True IRR, 5Y IRR total return, blended fair value, or the blended IRR at current price to see the live formula with your ticker’s numbers - year-by-year FCF weights, terminal blend, and the solved result. Use those tooltips to verify the math without exporting the model.
Scenario probabilities default to 33% / 34% / 33% until you change them per ticker. Bear / base / bull assumptions can be edited in the DCF panel; defaults are derived from recent financials.