Bear Case
$127.79
49% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc9/27/2026, 1:44:42 PM
Price
+0.29 (0.12%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$196.00 - $287.20
Price · YTD
$249.67+10.2%
Valuation
Market cap
$2.7T
EV
$2.8T
5Y CAGR
13.2%
D/E
0.40x
P/E
20x
P/TB
5.09x
P/FCF
-
EV/FCF
-
P/S
3.46x
Rule of 40
33%
Div yield
-
Employees
1,576,000
Profit / employee
$85,838
FCF-SBC yield
-1%
ROIC
14.4%
RSI
44.7
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q2'26
vs Q2'25 last year
Revenue
$201B
QoQ
+10.5%
YoY vs Q2'25
+19.6%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +28%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $775,680MGross profit: $393,810MOp. income: $93,712MNet income: $135,281M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $93,712MOp. CF: $161,403MFCF-SBC: $-26,918MCapex: $169,007M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +51%Operating: +12%Net: +17%FCF-SBC: -3%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $93,712MNet debt: $100,244MTangible book: $528,116M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 88,988 | - | +29% | 178 | 0% | -241 | 6,842 | 4,893 | 1,491 | 458 | +1% | 0% | 143,382 | 134,231 | -51.4 | -9,151 | 9,240 | 7,422 | 754x |
| 2015 | 107,006 | +20% | +33% | 2,233 | +2% | 596 | 12,039 | 4,589 | 2,119 | 5,331 | +5% | 2% | 315,641 | 304,060 | -5.2 | -11,581 | 9,340 | 9,625 | 136x |
| 2016 | 135,987 | +27% | +35% | 4,186 | +3% | 2,371 | 17,203 | 6,737 | 2,975 | 7,491 | +6% | 2% | 355,438 | 337,151 | -4.4 | -18,287 | 9,480 | 15,501 | 81x |
| 2017 | 177,866 | +31% | +37% | 4,106 | +2% | 3,033 | 18,365 | 10,058 | 4,215 | 4,092 | +2% | 1% | 561,346 | 555,103 | -1.5 | -6,243 | 9,600 | 14,359 | 135x |
| 2018 | 232,887 | +31% | +40% | 12,421 | +5% | 10,073 | 30,723 | 11,323 | 5,418 | 13,982 | +6% | 2% | 731,459 | 723,354 | -0.7 | -8,105 | 9,740 | 29,001 | 58x |
| 2019 | 280,522 | +20% | +41% | 14,541 | +5% | 11,588 | 38,514 | 12,689 | 6,864 | 18,961 | +7% | 2% | 912,833 | 921,017 | 0.6 | 8,184 | 9,880 | 47,306 | 63x |
| 2020 | 386,064 | +38% | +40% | 22,899 | +6% | 21,331 | 66,064 | 35,044 | 9,208 | 21,812 | +6% | 1% | 1,629,279 | 1,629,272 | -0.0 | -7 | 10,005 | 78,387 | 71x |
| 2021 | 469,822 | +22% | +42% | 24,879 | +5% | 33,364 | 46,327 | 55,396 | 12,757 | -21,826 | -5% | -1% | 1,686,676 | 1,707,022 | 0.8 | 20,346 | 10,117 | 122,874 | 69x |
| 2022 | 513,983 | +9% | +44% | 12,248 | +2% | -2,722 | 46,752 | 58,321 | 19,621 | -31,190 | -6% | -4% | 855,876 | 925,968 | 5.7 | 70,092 | 10,189 | 125,755 | 76x |
| 2023 | 574,785 | +12% | +47% | 36,852 | +6% | 30,425 | 84,946 | 48,133 | 24,023 | 12,790 | +2% | 1% | 1,565,590 | 1,614,421 | 1.3 | 48,831 | 10,304 | 179,086 | 44x |
| 2024 | 637,959 | +11% | +49% | 68,593 | +11% | 59,248 | 115,877 | 77,658 | 22,011 | 16,208 | +3% | 1% | 2,297,671 | 2,327,369 | 0.4 | 29,698 | 10,473 | 262,896 | 34x |
| 2025 | 716,924 | +12% | +50% | 79,975 | +11% | 77,670 | 139,514 | 128,320 | 19,467 | -8,273 | -1% | 0% | 2,459,618 | 2,489,576 | 0.4 | 29,958 | 10,656 | 387,792 | 31x |
| Q2'26 | 200,606 | +20% | +52% | 27,461 | +14% | 62,647 | 45,387 | 53,076 | 6,038 | -13,727 | -7% | -2% | 2,685,728 | 2,785,972 | 0.9 | 100,244 | 10,903 | 528,116 | 25x |
| TTM | 775,680 | +16% | +51% | 93,712 | +12% | 135,281 | 161,403 | 169,007 | 19,314 | -26,918 | -3% | -1% | 2,685,728 | 2,785,972 | 1.1 | 528,116 | 30x | ||
| CAGR | +17.4% | - | - | - | 7% | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | - | - | - | 1.1 | - | +1.3% | - | 56x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
Amazon.com Inc
$AMZNCurrent Price $249.67
Base Case
$263.29
5% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$442.96
77% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
-3%33%
Base
+11%34%
Bull
+23%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $249.67 · improving
+12.3%
Bear case
DCF$127.8
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- -3.5%
- 5Y IRR total return
- -16.2%Bagholder
- Implied 5Y Price
- $209.26
- Upside vs price
- -48.8%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$263.3
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +11.2%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +69.7%2 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $423.65
- Upside vs price
- +5.5%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$443.0
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +23.1%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +182.9%3 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $706.43
- Upside vs price
- +77.4%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$277.9
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +12.3%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +78.9%2 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $446.64
- Upside vs price
- +11.3%
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