Bear Case
$560.02
25% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
META
META9/27/2026, 1:44:12 PM
Price
-25.93 (-3.33%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$519.43 - $779.82
Price · YTD
$751.66+15.8%
● Ex-div
Valuation
Market cap
$1.9T
EV
$1.9T
5Y CAGR
18.5%
D/E
0.43x
P/E
28x
P/TB
8.02x
P/FCF
120x
EV/FCF
122x
P/S
8.36x
Rule of 40
59%
Div yield
0.3%
Employees
78,865
Profit / employee
$863,476
FCF-SBC yield
1%
ROIC
24.0%
RSI
71.6
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q2'26
vs Q2'25 last year
Revenue
$61B
QoQ
+8.0%
YoY vs Q2'25
+28.0%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +66%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $228,247MGross profit: $186,587MOp. income: $86,927MNet income: $68,098M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $86,927MOp. CF: $130,301MFCF-SBC: $15,840MCapex: $89,325M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +82%Operating: +38%Net: +30%FCF-SBC: +7%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $86,927MNet debt: $22,058MTangible book: $237,815M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12,466 | - | +83% | 4,994 | +40% | 2,940 | 7,326 | 1,831 | 3,639 | 1,856 | +15% | 1% | 202,050 | 191,084 | -2.2 | -10,966 | 2,614 | 14,186 | 38x |
| 2015 | 17,928 | +44% | +84% | 6,225 | +35% | 3,688 | 10,320 | 2,523 | 4,681 | 3,116 | +17% | 1% | 290,637 | 272,317 | -2.9 | -18,320 | 2,803 | 22,946 | 44x |
| 2016 | 27,638 | +54% | +86% | 12,427 | +45% | 10,217 | 16,108 | 4,491 | 3,218 | 8,399 | +30% | 3% | 326,328 | 296,879 | -2.4 | -29,449 | 2,863 | 38,537 | 24x |
| 2017 | 40,653 | +47% | +87% | 20,203 | +50% | 15,934 | 24,216 | 6,733 | 3,723 | 13,760 | +34% | 3% | 507,155 | 465,444 | -2.1 | -41,711 | 2,901 | 54,242 | 23x |
| 2018 | 55,838 | +37% | +83% | 24,913 | +45% | 22,112 | 29,274 | 13,915 | 4,152 | 11,207 | +20% | 3% | 375,331 | 334,217 | -1.7 | -41,114 | 2,890 | 64,532 | 13x |
| 2019 | 70,697 | +27% | +82% | 23,986 | +34% | 18,485 | 36,314 | 15,102 | 4,836 | 16,376 | +23% | 3% | 580,342 | 535,811 | -1.9 | -44,531 | 2,854 | 81,445 | 22x |
| 2020 | 85,965 | +22% | +81% | 32,671 | +38% | 29,146 | 38,747 | 15,115 | 6,536 | 17,096 | +20% | 2% | 771,545 | 720,245 | -1.6 | -51,300 | 2,851 | 108,617 | 22x |
| 2021 | 117,929 | +37% | +81% | 46,753 | +40% | 39,370 | 57,683 | 18,567 | 9,164 | 29,952 | +25% | 3% | 938,030 | 903,905 | -0.7 | -34,125 | 2,815 | 105,048 | 19x |
| 2022 | 116,609 | -1% | +78% | 28,944 | +25% | 23,200 | 50,475 | 31,186 | 11,992 | 7,297 | +6% | 2% | 320,350 | 306,203 | -0.5 | -14,147 | 2,687 | 104,510 | 11x |
| 2023 | 134,902 | +16% | +81% | 46,751 | +35% | 39,098 | 71,113 | 27,045 | 14,027 | 30,041 | +22% | 3% | 902,629 | 874,460 | -0.6 | -28,169 | 2,574 | 132,514 | 19x |
| 2024 | 164,501 | +22% | +82% | 69,380 | +42% | 62,360 | 91,328 | 37,256 | 16,690 | 37,382 | +23% | 3% | 1,475,491 | 1,446,736 | -0.4 | -28,755 | 2,534 | 161,983 | 21x |
| 2025 | 200,966 | +22% | +82% | 83,276 | +41% | 60,458 | 115,800 | 69,691 | 20,427 | 25,682 | +13% | 2% | 1,660,050 | 1,662,355 | 0.0 | 2,305 | 2,521 | 192,709 | 20x |
| Q2'26 | 60,801 | +28% | +81% | 18,775 | +31% | 15,848 | 31,862 | 30,116 | 7,658 | -5,912 | -10% | -1% | 1,908,031 | 1,930,089 | 0.3 | 22,058 | 2,566 | 237,815 | 26x |
| TTM | 228,247 | +28% | +82% | 86,927 | +38% | 68,098 | 130,301 | 89,325 | 25,136 | 15,840 | +7% | 1% | 1,908,031 | 1,930,089 | 0.3 | 237,815 | 22x | ||
| CAGR | +20.1% | - | - | - | 37% | - | - | - | - | - | 19% | - | - | - | -0.9 | - | -1.9% | - | 18x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
META
$METACurrent Price $751.66
Base Case
$1,285.52
71% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$2,435.35
224% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
+4%33%
Base
+23%34%
Bull
+40%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $751.66 · high-conviction add
+25.2%
Bear case
DCF$560.0
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +3.6%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +19.4%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $897.11
- Upside vs price
- -25.5%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$1,285.5
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +22.7%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +177.6%3 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $2,086.25
- Upside vs price
- +71.0%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$2,435.4
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +39.5%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +428.4%5 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $3,971.62
- Upside vs price
- +224.0%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$1,425.6
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +25.2%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +207.9%3 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $2,314.59
- Upside vs price
- +89.7%
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