Bear Case
$356.31
31% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation9/27/2026, 1:44:52 PM
Price
+18.24 (3.66%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$348.54 - $549.18
Price · YTD
$516.17+9.8%
● Ex-div
Valuation
Market cap
$3.8T
EV
$3.8T
5Y CAGR
14.6%
D/E
0.13x
P/E
29x
P/TB
13x
P/FCF
70x
EV/FCF
70x
P/S
12x
Rule of 40
63%
Div yield
0.7%
Employees
223,000
Profit / employee
$599,771
FCF-SBC yield
1%
ROIC
31.7%
RSI
63.7
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q4'26
vs Q4'25 last year
Revenue
$90B
QoQ
+8.6%
YoY vs Q4'25
+17.7%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +65%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $331,839MGross profit: $225,465MOp. income: $155,237MNet income: $133,749M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $155,237MOp. CF: $182,935MFCF-SBC: $54,582MCapex: $115,948M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +68%Operating: +47%Net: +40%FCF-SBC: +16%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $155,237MNet debt: $-20,017MTangible book: $304,127M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 93,580 | - | +65% | 18,161 | +19% | 12,193 | 29,668 | 5,944 | 2,574 | 21,150 | +23% | 5% | 394,723 | 333,489 | -3.4 | -61,234 | 8,177 | 58,309 | 18x |
| 2016 | 91,154 | -3% | +64% | 26,078 | +29% | 20,539 | 33,325 | 8,343 | 2,668 | 22,314 | +24% | 5% | 440,197 | 380,418 | -2.3 | -59,779 | 7,925 | 50,392 | 15x |
| 2017 | 96,571 | +6% | +65% | 29,025 | +30% | 25,489 | 39,507 | 8,129 | 3,266 | 28,112 | +29% | 5% | 605,441 | 564,026 | -1.4 | -41,415 | 7,746 | 42,483 | 19x |
| 2018 | 110,360 | +14% | +65% | 35,058 | +32% | 16,571 | 43,884 | 11,632 | 3,940 | 28,312 | +26% | 4% | 727,024 | 675,064 | -1.5 | -51,960 | 7,700 | 38,982 | 19x |
| 2019 | 125,843 | +14% | +66% | 42,959 | +34% | 39,240 | 52,185 | 13,925 | 4,652 | 33,608 | +27% | 3% | 1,141,559 | 1,086,106 | -1.3 | -55,453 | 7,673 | 52,554 | 25x |
| 2020 | 143,015 | +14% | +68% | 52,959 | +37% | 44,281 | 60,675 | 15,441 | 5,289 | 39,945 | +28% | 2% | 1,613,756 | 1,548,227 | -1.2 | -65,529 | 7,610 | 67,915 | 29x |
| 2021 | 168,088 | +18% | +69% | 69,916 | +42% | 61,271 | 76,740 | 20,622 | 6,118 | 50,000 | +30% | 2% | 2,440,223 | 2,377,664 | -0.9 | -62,559 | 7,547 | 84,477 | 34x |
| 2022 | 198,270 | +18% | +68% | 83,383 | +42% | 72,738 | 89,035 | 23,886 | 7,502 | 57,647 | +29% | 3% | 1,744,686 | 1,701,199 | -0.5 | -43,487 | 7,496 | 87,720 | 20x |
| 2023 | 211,915 | +7% | +69% | 88,523 | +42% | 72,361 | 87,582 | 28,107 | 9,611 | 49,864 | +24% | 2% | 2,741,543 | 2,690,246 | -0.6 | -51,297 | 7,446 | 128,971 | 30x |
| 2024 | 245,122 | +16% | +70% | 109,433 | +45% | 88,136 | 118,548 | 44,477 | 10,734 | 63,337 | +26% | 2% | 3,089,526 | 3,081,110 | -0.1 | -8,416 | 7,431 | 121,660 | 28x |
| 2025 | 281,724 | +15% | +69% | 128,528 | +46% | 101,832 | 136,162 | 64,551 | 11,974 | 59,637 | +21% | 2% | 3,572,030 | 3,538,053 | -0.3 | -33,977 | 7,433 | 201,366 | 28x |
| 2026 | 331,839 | +18% | +68% | 155,237 | +47% | 133,749 | 182,935 | 115,948 | 12,405 | 54,582 | +16% | 1% | 3,834,627 | 3,814,610 | -0.1 | -20,017 | 7,429 | 304,127 | 25x |
| Q4'26 | 90,007 | +18% | +67% | 40,603 | +45% | 35,766 | 55,441 | 35,802 | 3,122 | 16,517 | +18% | 2% | 3,834,335 | 3,814,318 | -0.1 | -20,017 | 7,441 | 304,127 | 23x |
| TTM | 331,839 | +18% | +68% | 155,237 | +47% | 133,749 | 182,935 | 115,948 | 12,405 | 54,582 | +16% | 1% | 3,834,335 | 3,814,318 | -0.1 | 304,127 | 25x | ||
| CAGR | +14.9% | - | - | - | 42% | - | - | - | - | - | 25% | - | - | - | -0.6 | - | -0.5% | - | 27x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation
$MSFTCurrent Price $516.17
Base Case
$790.28
53% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$1,341.84
160% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
+2%33%
Base
+20%34%
Bull
+34%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $516.17 · high-conviction add
+21.2%
Bear case
DCF$356.3
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +1.9%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +9.8%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $566.60
- Upside vs price
- -31.0%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$790.3
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +20.0%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +149.1%2 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $1,285.96
- Upside vs price
- +53.1%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$1,341.8
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +33.7%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +326.8%4 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $2,202.88
- Upside vs price
- +160.0%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$829.1
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +21.2%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +161.6%3 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $1,350.13
- Upside vs price
- +60.6%
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