Bear Case
$194.33
14% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp9/27/2026, 1:45:13 PM
Price
+0.49 (0.22%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$163.89 - $236.00
Price · YTD
$225.07+19.5%
● Ex-div
Valuation
Market cap
$5.4T
EV
$5.4T
5Y CAGR
66.9%
D/E
0.17x
P/E
28x
P/TB
27x
P/FCF
45x
EV/FCF
45x
P/S
18x
Rule of 40
172%
Div yield
0.2%
Employees
42,000
Profit / employee
$5M
FCF-SBC yield
2%
ROIC
114.8%
RSI
55.6
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q2'26
vs Q2'25 last year
Revenue
$96B
QoQ
+17.9%
YoY vs Q2'25
+105.9%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +149%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $302,969MGross profit: $226,241MOp. income: $197,579MNet income: $192,879M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $197,579MOp. CF: $134,360MFCF-SBC: $119,765MCapex: $7,354M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +75%Operating: +65%Net: +64%FCF-SBC: +40%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $197,579MNet debt: $-61,018MTangible book: $204,861M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4,682 | - | +56% | 759 | +16% | 631 | 906 | 101 | 140 | 665 | +14% | 6% | 10,600 | 7,375 | -4.2 | -3,225 | 22,080 | 3,578 | 9.72x |
| 2015 | 5,010 | +7% | +56% | 747 | +15% | 614 | 1,175 | 79 | 194 | 902 | +18% | 5% | 17,423 | 13,983 | -4.7 | -3,527 | 21,720 | 3,685 | 19x |
| 2016 | 6,910 | +38% | +59% | 1,934 | +28% | 1,666 | 1,672 | 169 | 247 | 1,256 | +18% | 2% | 56,755 | 52,767 | -2.1 | -3,988 | 21,640 | 5,040 | 27x |
| 2017 | 9,714 | +41% | +60% | 3,210 | +33% | 3,047 | 3,502 | 591 | 391 | 2,520 | +26% | 2% | 114,356 | 109,248 | -1.6 | -5,108 | 23,960 | 6,801 | 34x |
| 2018 | 11,716 | +21% | +61% | 3,804 | +32% | 4,141 | 3,743 | 600 | 557 | 2,586 | +22% | 3% | 80,305 | 74,871 | -1.4 | -5,434 | 24,320 | 8,679 | 20x |
| 2019 | 10,918 | -7% | +62% | 2,846 | +26% | 2,796 | 4,761 | 489 | 844 | 3,428 | +31% | 2% | 142,505 | 134,160 | -2.9 | -8,345 | 24,390 | 11,537 | 47x |
| 2020 | 16,675 | +53% | +62% | 4,532 | +27% | 4,332 | 5,822 | 1,128 | 1,397 | 3,297 | +20% | 1% | 320,428 | 316,464 | -0.9 | -3,964 | 24,670 | 9,963 | 70x |
| 2021 | 26,914 | +61% | +65% | 10,041 | +37% | 9,752 | 9,108 | 976 | 2,004 | 6,128 | +23% | 1% | 730,987 | 721,466 | -0.9 | -9,521 | 24,960 | 19,924 | 72x |
| 2022 | 26,974 | 0% | +57% | 4,224 | +16% | 4,368 | 5,641 | 1,833 | 2,709 | 1,099 | +4% | 0% | 362,238 | 360,797 | -0.3 | -1,441 | 24,870 | 16,053 | 85x |
| 2023 | 60,922 | +126% | +73% | 32,972 | +54% | 29,760 | 28,090 | 1,069 | 3,549 | 23,472 | +39% | 2% | 1,219,170 | 1,204,014 | -0.5 | -15,156 | 24,690 | 37,436 | 37x |
| 2024 | 130,497 | +114% | +75% | 81,453 | +62% | 72,880 | 64,089 | 3,236 | 4,737 | 56,116 | +43% | 2% | 3,288,902 | 3,255,674 | -0.4 | -33,228 | 24,555 | 73,332 | 40x |
| 2025 | 215,938 | +65% | +71% | 130,387 | +60% | 120,067 | 102,718 | 6,042 | 6,386 | 90,290 | +42% | 2% | 4,532,332 | 4,480,816 | -0.4 | -51,516 | 24,359 | 133,155 | 34x |
| Q2'26 | 96,221 | +106% | +75% | 63,734 | +66% | 59,688 | 24,077 | 2,677 | 2,026 | 19,374 | +20% | 1% | 5,446,694 | 5,385,676 | -0.2 | -61,018 | 24,285 | 204,861 | 21x |
| TTM | 302,969 | +83% | +75% | 197,579 | +65% | 192,879 | 134,360 | 7,354 | 7,241 | 119,765 | +40% | 2% | 5,446,694 | 5,385,676 | -0.3 | 204,861 | 27x | ||
| CAGR | +51.6% | - | - | - | 39% | - | - | - | - | - | 28% | - | - | - | -1.0 | - | 0.0% | - | 51x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
NVIDIA Corp
$NVDACurrent Price $225.07
Base Case
$453.66
102% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$855.11
280% Upside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
+7%33%
Base
+27%34%
Bull
+45%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $225.07 · high-conviction add
+29.8%
Bear case
DCF$194.3
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +6.7%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +38.1%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $310.73
- Upside vs price
- -13.7%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$453.7
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +27.2%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +233.0%3 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $749.56
- Upside vs price
- +101.6%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$855.1
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +44.8%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +536.1%6 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $1,431.64
- Upside vs price
- +279.9%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$500.6
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +29.8%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +268.0%4 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $828.17
- Upside vs price
- +122.4%
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