Bear Case
$195.02
48% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
TSLA
Tesla Inc9/27/2026, 1:44:32 PM
Price
-5.83 (-1.54%)
EOD as of 2026-09-25
52-wk
$297.38 - $498.83
Price · YTD
$372.11-15.1%
Valuation
Market cap
$1.4T
EV
$1.4T
5Y CAGR
24.6%
D/E
0.11x
P/E
367x
P/TB
16x
P/FCF
712x
EV/FCF
694x
P/S
13x
Rule of 40
27%
Div yield
-
Employees
29,000
Profit / employee
$131,172
FCF-SBC yield
0%
ROIC
7.2%
RSI
55.1
Financial charts
Last 9 quarters
Quarter-over-quarter · current vs same quarter last year
Current quarterYear-ago quarterOther quarters
Latest quarter
Q2'26
vs Q2'25 last year
Revenue
$28B
QoQ
+26.1%
YoY vs Q2'25
+25.5%
Same fiscal quarter
Revenue & earnings waterfall
Rule of 40
TTM
Rule of 40 (Op): +16%
Revenue & earnings
TTM
Revenue: $103,619MGross profit: $19,534MOp. income: $4,372MNet income: $3,804M
Op. income & cash flow
TTM
Op. income: $4,372MOp. CF: $18,685MFCF-SBC: $1,964MCapex: $12,923M
Margins
TTM
Gross: +19%Operating: +4%Net: +4%FCF-SBC: +2%
Balance sheet
TTM
Op. income: $4,372MNet debt: $-34,182MTangible book: $86,858M
Historical financials
| Period | Revenue | Y/Y | G mgn | Op inc | Op mgn | Net inc | OCF | Capex | SBC | FCF-SBC | FCF mgn | Yield | Mkt cap | EV | ND/EBIT | Net debt | Shares | Tang. book | EV/EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3,198 | - | +28% | -187 | -6% | -294 | -57 | 970 | 156 | -1,184 | -37% | -4% | 27,699 | 28,310 | - | 553 | 1,868 | 912 | - |
| 2015 | 4,046 | +27% | +23% | -717 | -18% | -889 | -524 | 1,635 | 198 | -2,357 | -58% | -8% | 30,770 | 32,294 | - | 1,477 | 1,923 | 1,071 | - |
| 2016 | 7,000 | +73% | +23% | -667 | -10% | -675 | -124 | 1,440 | 334 | -1,899 | -27% | -6% | 30,817 | 35,607 | - | 3,630 | 2,163 | 4,377 | - |
| 2017 | 11,759 | +68% | +19% | -1,632 | -14% | -1,962 | -61 | 4,081 | 467 | -4,609 | -39% | -9% | 51,684 | 59,871 | - | 6,792 | 2,490 | 3,816 | - |
| 2018 | 21,461 | +83% | +19% | -388 | -2% | -976 | 2,098 | 2,319 | 749 | -970 | -5% | -2% | 56,776 | 66,259 | - | 8,093 | 2,559 | 4,573 | - |
| 2019 | 24,578 | +15% | +17% | -69 | -0% | -862 | 2,405 | 1,432 | 898 | 75 | 0% | 0% | 74,212 | 82,855 | - | 7,151 | 2,661 | 6,081 | - |
| 2020 | 31,536 | +28% | +21% | 1,994 | +6% | 721 | 5,943 | 3,232 | 1,734 | 977 | +3% | 0% | 658,155 | 652,015 | -3.8 | -7,645 | 2,798 | 21,705 | 327x |
| 2021 | 53,823 | +71% | +25% | 6,523 | +12% | 5,519 | 11,497 | 6,514 | 2,121 | 2,862 | +5% | 0% | 1,042,337 | 1,032,858 | -1.7 | -10,873 | 2,959 | 29,732 | 158x |
| 2022 | 81,462 | +51% | +26% | 13,656 | +17% | 12,556 | 14,724 | 7,163 | 1,560 | 6,001 | +7% | 2% | 385,553 | 367,661 | -1.4 | -19,086 | 3,130 | 44,295 | 27x |
| 2023 | 96,773 | +19% | +18% | 8,891 | +9% | 14,997 | 13,256 | 8,899 | 1,812 | 2,545 | +3% | 0% | 788,676 | 765,787 | -2.7 | -23,864 | 3,174 | 62,203 | 86x |
| 2024 | 97,690 | +1% | +18% | 7,076 | +7% | 7,091 | 14,923 | 11,342 | 1,999 | 1,582 | +2% | 0% | 1,291,076 | 1,263,493 | -4.0 | -28,350 | 3,197 | 72,913 | 179x |
| 2025 | 94,827 | -3% | +18% | 4,355 | +5% | 3,794 | 14,747 | 8,527 | 2,825 | 3,395 | +4% | 0% | 1,450,347 | 1,415,392 | -8.2 | -35,683 | 3,225 | 82,137 | 325x |
| Q2'26 | 28,236 | +26% | +17% | 398 | +1% | 1,114 | 4,697 | 5,789 | 1,151 | -2,243 | -8% | -1% | 1,397,542 | 1,363,360 | -21.5 | -34,182 | 3,237 | 86,858 | 856x |
| TTM | 103,619 | +12% | +19% | 4,372 | +4% | 3,804 | 18,685 | 12,923 | 3,798 | 1,964 | +2% | 0% | 1,397,542 | 1,363,360 | -7.8 | 86,858 | 312x | ||
| CAGR | +23.6% | - | - | - | 7% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | - | - | - | -3.6 | - | +3.4% | - | 184x |
DCF model
Auto-saved
Bear / Base / Bull
DCF Fair Value
Tesla Inc
$TSLACurrent Price $372.11
Base Case
$257.04
31% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
Bull Case
$319.05
14% Downside
- Revenue Growth 1-5YR
- Op. Margin
- 5YR exit EV/EBIT multiple
- Adj. FCF Margin
- 10% Discount rate
- 10%
- Probability %
DCFs by PlusEVbagholder.com
Data provided by Tiingo.com
Scenario summary
BLENDED IRR VS ENTRY PRICE
BearBaseBullBlendedCurrent price
SCENARIO TRUE IRR
WTBear
-3%33%
Base
+2%34%
Bull
+7%33%
Weights you set once · IRRs re-rate with price
BLENDED IRR
Put your DCF assumptions once.
Price goes down = IRR goes up · Price goes up = IRR goes down
At $372.11 · stretch
+2.1%
Bear case
DCF$195.0
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- -3.4%
- 5Y IRR total return
- -15.8%Bagholder
- Implied 5Y Price
- $313.17
- Upside vs price
- -47.6%
Probability
%
Base case
DCF$257.0
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +2.1%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +11.1%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $413.39
- Upside vs price
- -30.9%
Probability
%
Bull case
DCF$319.1
Implied fair value today
- True IRR
- +6.7%
- 5Y IRR total return
- +38.0%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $513.59
- Upside vs price
- -14.3%
Probability
%
Blended (probability-weighted)
Weighted$257.0
Blended fair value today
- True IRR
- +2.1%
- Blended 5Y IRR total return
- +11.1%1 bagger
- Implied 5Y Price
- $413.39
- Upside vs price
- -30.9%
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