Greatest hits

The $RDDT collapse is probably not justified — GOOG AI answers hurting search traffic, META launching Forum. But does it mean reddits dead? No. AI models are trained off Reddit. Deserves a second look after dropping from the 250s.

His biggest X hit ever — 6.4K views calling the RDDT bottom on AI-search fears.

$KSS BULLISH DEEP VALUE THESIS: Sephora added 2020 to 80-90% of stores, capex trending down which directly increases FCF. Owns ~400 buildings, leases 600 — bought in 2000, heavily depreciated (lowers taxable income, FCF unaffected). FCF 1128m vs net income 271m for 2026. Market cap 1321m = 85% adj FCF yield. Stock based comp negligible. Heavily discounted on debt fears, but 2022 accounting rule inflates lease liability: reported 4.0x leverage is really 2.1x on actual terms. 674m cash. 600m tariff refunds expected = one-time windfall. Tangible book 4048m, price/TB 0.32x. With 25% short interest could rebound to 1x TB ~$35. Catalysts: pay down debt, buybacks while depressed, insider buying.

The flagship deep-value pitch — VIC rejected it, the tariff-refund math did the talking.

Spinoff from GE 2023. Oligopoly with Siemens/Philips in MRI. 3 segments: Imaging (MRI/CT, 14% EBIT margin), PDX contrast drugs (14% rev growth, 30% EBIT margin — printer-and-ink model), PCS (drag, declining). MRI techs prefer GE ease of use — 'Apple vs Android'. 1.15 book-to-bill backlog. I work at a top cancer hospital in diagnostic imaging: ~70% GE scanners. High recurring revenue — cancer patients get scanned for life. Acquiring theranostic PET drugs (SOFIE). Bull case margins expand to 18%, rev 8% as contrast grows. Bear case you still make money — people still need scans in recession. Contrast bottle recall and tariffs were one-time hits.

His professional edge on display — he works in diagnostic imaging and ~70% of his hospital's scanners are GE.

$TMDX takes the healthcare crown 👑 They make the machines that keep donor hearts, lungs, and livers warm and beating outside the body. Revenue went from $6M in 2016 to $668M now. Thats a 73% annual growth rate. Stock is down 45% from its highs because a short seller wrote a hit piece in January and 25% of the float is still short. Company denied everything. Bull case is $383.88 (+357%). Even the street high is $175 and consensus is $121, both way above $84. 25% short interest on a company growing 25% a year. Someones wrong here. Agree or disagree?

357% bull case on the transplant-tech name fighting a short seller — 'Someones wrong here.'

$DECK takes the footwear crown 👑 HOKA went from niche trail shoe to $2.6B (+16%) and its a top 3 running brand across Europe now. UGG puts up $1.3B quarters year round, not just winter anymore. Bull case is $165 (+113%). 56% gross margins, they barely discount, international up 25%. Honestly? Nike is the melting ice cube here. HOKA is eating its lunch one marathon at a time. Agree or disagree?

The anti-Nike footwear call — HOKA eating Nike's lunch 'one marathon at a time.'

Nike is a short 👟 $NKE : $35.15 → $16.34 (-54%) Bear $16.34, base $36.63, bull $64.72. Guidance cut, China falling apart, and the turnaround keeps getting pushed out. Ugly chart, bearish DCF. Don't catch this knife. Shorting it or just staying away?

His highest-conviction short — Nike as the melting ice cube, DCF-backed.

$CMCSA @ $24. 5Y DCF fair value $42. 78% upside. Bears focus on losing cable TV — fine. Real money is broadband: once the cable is laid the money printer begins (3.9b FCF/quarter). Phone bundling now drives retention like cable bundle used to. Similar playbook as $CHTR but less leveraged. Peacock, Epic parks, media to be spun out in a year — then pure-play broadband like AT&T post-Warner. Green KPIs: P/E 5x, P/FCF 5x.

The broadband-money-printer thesis — cable laid once, cash collected forever.

Dutch Bros spotlight ☕ $BROS : $38.61 → $94.57 (+145%) Bear $21.10, base $53.28, bull $94.57. Even the bear case has them growing double digits, the debate is just the exit multiple. Revenue went $498M → $1.9B in four years. The model believes the growth story. Small coffee, big numbers. You buying?

Coffee growth story — revenue $498M to $1.9B in four years.

$INTU is the GOAT software stock 👑 Down 62% from its highs. Meanwhile it's still doing $21B in revenue growing double digits with TurboTax and QuickBooks printing cash. Bull case is $672.62 (+151%). Thats basically just getting back to where it traded last year. When the entire street hates a compounder this much I start getting interested. Trash or Cash?

Beaten-down compounder — 'When the entire street hates a compounder this much I start getting interested.'

Earnings season is coming. Forget price targets. Here are the 5 highest blended IRRs in my portfolio — the annualized return my DCFs imply from today's price. All 5 are holdings of mine: 1/ $KSS — 37% That's Kohl's blended IRR, highest in the book. $18.92 today, $26.51 blended fair value. Bear $2.88, bull $49.99 — the range is absurd, which is exactly why the IRR screens so high. Retail roadkill or the cheapest turnaround in the market.

His portfolio's highest blended IRR — 'Retail roadkill or the cheapest turnaround in the market.'